The State of Gay Rights

America now has a gay-rights majority. Gallup reports that for
the first time ever, most people?53 percent?favor legalizing
same-sex marriage. That's up from 27 percent just 15 years ago. The
nation has moved, and it's not going back.
It's nice to think that in a democracy, public policy will soon
follow public opinion, with same-sex marriage becoming the norm,
not the exception. But that's not how democracy works in a big,
diverse federal system. On this emotional issue, the citizenry is
divided, and marriage laws as well as politics will reflect that
division for a long time to come.
The good news is that changing sentiments have already begun to
alter the traditional conception of wedlock. Five states and the
District of Columbia now allow gay marriage. Another 13 offer civil
unions or domestic partnerships with some or all the benefits of
marriage, according to Lambda Legal.
But the resistance is still strong and broad-based. The recent
jump in support for same-sex marriage, Gallup notes, came entirely
from Democrats and independents. Among Democrats, support now
stands at 69 percent, with 59 percent of independents agreeing.
Republicans have not changed their minds. Only 28 percent are in
favor?the same as last year.
Realistic conservatives can't expect to prevail in the long-term
battle for hearts and minds. Jim Daly, president of Focus on the
Family, recently said, "We're losing on that one, especially among
the 20- and 30-somethings: 65 to 70 percent of them favor same-sex
marriage. ... We've probably lost that."
Public support for gay rights is even higher on other issues.
Some two-thirds of Americans support granting gays access to civil
unions. An ABC News/Washington Post survey last year found that 75
percent of Americans think openly gay individuals should be allowed
to serve in the military?including a majority of Republicans and
white evangelicals.
Yet the two parties remain at odds over the issue. Although
Democratic officeholders have been cautious in embracing same-sex
marriage, they generally favor civil unions, at least. Barack Obama
lifted the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy on gays.
The 2008 Republican national platform, by contrast, asserted
"the incompatibility of homosexuality with military service" and
endorsed a federal constitutional amendment banning same-sex
marriage.
The current crop of presidential candidates is almost unanimous
in sticking to that hard line. The notable heresies: Former Utah
Gov. John Huntsman signed a civil-union law, and Rep. Ron Paul of
Texas voted to repeal the military ban.
Given the growing sentiment in favor of equality for gays, the
Republican Party might seem to have two choices: Get in line or get
beat. In fact, there is every reason to think that for the
foreseeable future, the GOP will continue to reject gay rights?and
ample grounds, alas, to think it can do so without any real
political penalty.
One reason is that most people who support same-sex marriage
usually wouldn't vote Republican anyway. So Republicans need to
make sure they retain their appeal to those (45 percent of
Americans) who oppose it.
Another is that in many of the states where the GOP is
strongest, gay rights are far less popular than they are
nationally. In Texas, same-sex marriage gets only 30 percent
support. In Utah, it's 22 percent. The states that provide it, by
contrast, are mostly places where Democrats flourish, like Vermont
and Massachusetts.
It's safe to assume that gay marriage will continue to spread in
the coming decades, and it's safe to assume that opponents will not
be able to get a constitutional amendment. But it's also safe to
assume that many or most states will continue to forbid it.
Connecticut and Iowa are one thing. Alabama and Arizona are
another.
The other thing Republicans have going for them is that most
people don't base their votes on this single issue. In the 2010
elections, 31 percent of gays voted for GOP congressional
candidates.
Why? Because they place greater importance on other issues.
Voting for a candidate is like choosing a cable TV package: Just
because it's the best of the options doesn't mean you like
everything it includes.
The recent emergence of a majority that favors same-sex marriage
constitutes a turning point. So did the battle of Gettysburg?and at
that moment, the Civil War was only about half over. The outcome of
the gay-rights fight may be discernible on the horizon, but there's
a lot of fighting ahead.
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